Development Strategy Report
A comprehensive ten-year outlook for small and large format retail sites, analyzing tenant strategies and emerging delivery-first developments that will shape the future of commercial real estate.
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Small Sites Strategy: 4-6 Tenant Focus
For smaller developments, durability comes from high-frequency, daily-needs uses that don't rely on large co-tenancy ecosystems. Success centers on three cores: daily-needs micro-anchors, food and beverage with drive-thru capability, and healthcare or service boxes with proven repeat-visit behavior.
Neighborhood Convenience Node
Drive-thru pads (Starbucks, Dunkin'), healthcare boxes (LensCrafters, Warby Parker), and essential services (Chase, Verizon)
Daily-Needs Strip
Discount grocer or pharmacy anchor (Aldi, CVS) with coffee, medspa, shipping, and optical services
Signalized Corner Cluster
Four stand-alone pads: coffee drive-thru, QSR with dual lanes, value gym, and urgent care clinic
Proven Tenant Mix Playbooks
Three defensive strategies that maximize occupancy and minimize rollover capital expenditure over the ten-year investment horizon.
1
Defensive Daily-Needs Mix
Aldi + Starbucks + FedEx + Verizon + LensCrafters
  • Very high occupancy rates
  • Modest but consistent rent growth
  • Minimal re-tenanting risk
2
Healthcare and Wellness Mix
CVS with clinic + Warby Parker + European Wax Center + Smoothie King
  • Structural growth from healthcare decentralization
  • High-frequency repeat visits
  • Premium rent potential
3
Value Food and Services Mix
Dunkin' + Chipotle + Chase + Petco + AT&T
  • Persistent consumer demand
  • Easy to re-tenant if needed
  • Strong cash flow stability
Large Format Centers: Anchor Strategy
For larger centers, durability comes from rent rolls weighted toward daily-needs anchors, value formats, healthcare-adjacent services, and high-frequency uses. The strategy overweights necessity retailers while being selective with discretionary categories.
Core Anchors to Pursue Aggressively
  • Supermarkets: Stop & Shop, Market Basket, Whole Foods, Aldi, Lidl
  • Off-price retail: TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Sierra, Ross
  • Essential services: PetSmart, LensCrafters, CVS, Walgreens
  • Financial/telecom: Chase, Bank of America, AT&T, T-Mobile
  • Fitness: Planet Fitness, Pure Barre, Club Pilates
Selective Growth Engines
  • Fast-casual: Chipotle, Panera, Starbucks, Sweetgreen
  • Beauty/wellness: Ulta, Sephora, European Wax Center
Ten-Year Category Outlook
Performance projections across key retail categories, balancing resilience with growth potential over the investment horizon.
95%
Supermarkets & Discount Grocers
Steady rent escalations, resilient occupancy, defensive in high-rate environments
88%
Off-Price Apparel/Home
Steady occupancy with strong backfill options, recession-resistant performance
92%
Healthcare & Optical
Structural growth tailwinds from healthcare decentralization trends
85%
Fast-Casual & Coffee
Strong demand cadence, manageable re-tenanting risk with infrastructure flexibility
Delivery-First Sites: The Future Campus
A delivery-first site treats the curb as the front door and back-of-house as a high-throughput production line. The goal is converting land, circulation, and utilities into a reliable last-mile engine that enables tenants to sell more with fewer parking stalls and less dine-in space.
01
No Double-Parking
Safe, legal staging areas prevent traffic violations and maintain flow
02
Sub 2-Minute Handoff
Predictable pickup for ready orders maximizes courier efficiency
03
Sub 12-Minute Cycle
Median courier cycle time within 2-mile radius ensures profitability
Delivery Campus Configuration
The optimal delivery campus on approximately 1 acre combines efficient circulation, weather-protected pickup areas, and courier amenities to maximize throughput while maintaining community compatibility.
Physical Infrastructure
  • Pickup Court: 7-10 bays with weather canopy and direct kitchen access
  • Courier Pavilion: 1,500-2,000 SF with seating, lockers, restrooms, charging stations
  • Circulation: One-way internal loop with right-in/right-out access
  • Service Lane: Two-lane yard with screened compactors
Technology Integration
  • Campus API for order status and stall assignments
  • Computer vision for queue tracking
  • Digital wayfinding for couriers and consumers
  • Temperature-controlled locker walls
Delivery Campus Tenant Mix
The ideal tenant combination balances high-throughput food concepts with complementary services that stabilize volume throughout the day and provide diversification beyond meal periods.
Fast-Casual Kitchens
Two 3,000 SF spaces for brands like Chipotle Digital Kitchen and Sweetgreen Outpost, optimized for delivery throughput
Multi-Brand Kitchen
3,200 SF ghost kitchen operator space serving multiple virtual brands from one location
Beverage Leader
2,800 SF Starbucks Pickup or Dunkin' Drive-thru location focused on speed and convenience
Parcel Hub
900 SF Amazon Hub or UPS Access Point providing package services and stabilizing non-meal traffic
The Rise of Robotic Infrastructure
Over the next decade, delivery-first real estate will be reshaped by robotic infrastructure and autonomous vehicles. Developers who anticipate this shift will position their sites as the most relevant platforms for tenants and consumers alike.
1
2025-2027: Autonomous Vehicle Integration
AVs require staging zones with sensor-ready signage, standardized stall dimensions, and wireless integration with order platforms
2
2027-2030: Robotic Kitchen Deployment
Automated preparation systems demand higher electrical capacity, stronger data connections, and flexible venting for increased throughput
3
2030-2035: Full Automation Campus
Mature sites coordinate robotic kitchens, autonomous vehicles, and delivery bots through central servers and shared infrastructure
Investment Thesis: Future-Proofing Retail Real Estate
The convergence of necessity-based tenancy, delivery optimization, and emerging technology creates a compelling investment framework. Success requires balancing defensive positioning with strategic preparation for technological disruption.
Small Sites
Standardize 4-6 unit templates anchored by Aldi or CVS, flanked by coffee and QSR, supported by healthcare services. Produces durable NOI with strong exit liquidity.
Large Centers
Lead with necessity anchors like supermarkets and off-price retail, supplement with healthcare tenants, layer in selective food concepts. Build for conversion flexibility.
Delivery Campus
Invest in canopy, pavilion, venting, and digital backbone infrastructure. Design for robotic integration and autonomous vehicle compatibility to maintain relevance through 2035.
This approach balances resilience with upside, protecting capital while enabling participation in growth cycles. Real estate that anticipates technological evolution will command premiums, sustain occupancy, and attract capital at exit.